MIAMI -- Forecasters have now posted hurricane and storm surge warnings for Florida's East Coast, indicating they expect the monster storm to remain a hurricane as it crosses the state.

Top winds are down to 145 mph in the 8 a.m. EDT update. The storm is centered about 545 miles SW of Tampa, moving ENE at 12,

ULLETIN

Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 13A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024

700 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE

EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...

...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO USE TODAY TO PREPARE FOR

MILTON'S ARRIVAL AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...22.5N 88.8W

ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO

ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the Volusia/Brevard

County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Mary's River,

including the St. Johns River.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the east coast of Florida

from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line northward to Ponte

Vedra Beach.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the southeast coast of

Florida south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line to

Flamingo, and for the northeast coast of Florida north of Ponte

Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary's River.

The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings

south of Celestun.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee

River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

* East coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line

northward to the mouth of the St. Mary's River, including the St.

Johns River.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Celestun to Rio Lagartos

* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the

Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay

* Florida east coast from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line

northward to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Sebastian Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche

* Dry Tortugas

* Lake Okeechobee

* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Rio Lagartos to Cancun

* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay

* Lake Okeechobee

* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach

* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to

Indian Pass

* Florida east coast south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County

Line to Flamingo

* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the

St. Mary's River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the

St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a

depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons

located within these areas should take all necessary actions to

protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued

36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of

tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside

preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas

should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

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At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located

near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 88.8 West. Milton is moving

toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the

east-northeast and northeast is expected today and Wednesday. On

the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move just

north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and approach the west coast of

the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. The hurricane is forecast to

make landfall in Florida Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher

gusts. Milton is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in

intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely

dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105

miles (165 km).

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft dropsonde data is

929 mb (27.43 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC

and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4

to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the

Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the

surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause

normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters

moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft

Tampa Bay...10-15 ft

Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft

Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft

Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft

Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft

Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft

Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft

Volusia/Brevard County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to

the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be

accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding

depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,

and can vary greatly over short distances. For information

specific to your area, please see products issued by your local

National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge

inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm

Surge Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals

up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of

the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the

risk of life-threatening flash, urban and areal flooding along

with moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the

Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2

to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across

northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with

Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm

Total Rainfall Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk

graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue in the warning area in

Mexico today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas

in Mexico today, and tropical storm conditions are expected to

continue in tropical storm warning area today.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west

coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical

storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions

are expected along the east coast of Florida in the warning areas on

Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning

late Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected

in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early

Wednesday and will spread northward through the day. Tropical storm

conditions are possible within the watch area on the east coast of

Florida by Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina

coasts on Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern

Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday

night.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to

affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete

Photo: NHC

Jeffrey T. Mason